- Pending home sales in Las Vegas fell 13.4% year-over-year in March 2024, outpacing the national decline of 8%.
- Monthly mortgage payments have tripled since early 2022, pricing many buyers out of the market.
- Nearly 6,000 homes in Las Vegas are sitting unsold, indicating a growing oversupply.
- Real estate prices have not dropped significantly yet, but buyer is increasing.
- Experts like Steve Hawks see a market correction underway—not a crash—driven by affordability, not lending issues.
A Shifting Las Vegas Housing Market: Market Realignment, Not Collapse
Home sales waiting to close in the Las Vegas Valley dropped 13.4% from last March to this March. This puts Southern Nevada among the worst-performing areas in the nation. The housing market is losing speed because mortgage rates are high and buyers are unsure. People involved in the market are wondering: Is this the start of a crash? Or just a course correction from the very hot market of 2021? This article uses expert ideas and looks at local facts to explain the real story behind the numbers. It explains what they mean for buyers, sellers, and investors as the Las Vegas housing market changes.
Understanding Pending Home Sales
Home sales that are waiting to close are a key sign in the real estate cycle. They show the number of home purchase agreements signed in a month that are not yet final. Because these deals are waiting to close, they are a signal of future sales and general housing market trends.
When waiting sales go up, it usually means stronger buyer demand and a good market ahead. When they go down, especially for a few months in a row, it signals weaker activity, buyer hesitation, or worry about prices, rates, and future value.
Las Vegas’ 13.4% drop in waiting sales compared to March 2023 is not just about one month. It shows a deeper weakness in how buyers feel and worries about being able to afford a home. This can turn into pressure on prices all year. This is especially important because the national average only saw a smaller 8% drop. It shows how Las Vegas reacts more strongly to market problems.
Contextualizing the 13.4% Decline in Las Vegas
Real estate markets often change in cycles, but a 13.4% drop from last year in waiting home sales is more than just normal seasonal ups and downs. Las Vegas is in the same group as big metro areas like Seattle, San Diego, Portland, and San Jose. These markets are also seeing big drops. Las Vegas is different because it changes quickly and depends on people moving here, investment buying, and luxury buyers who have extra money.
In the past, Las Vegas grew fast when times were good and fell fast when times were bad. In the early 2000s housing bubble, it was one of the hardest-hit markets when the crash happened. Today, the reasons are different, but it is still likely to change quickly.
It is important to know that the Las Vegas housing market is often strongly affected by:
- People moving from places like California, where they want to find cheaper living.
- A big focus on investor and second-home buying, which needs people to feel sure they will get a return on their money.
- Jobs in hotels and tourism, which can change more than jobs in areas with different kinds of work.
So, the current drop should be seen as part of a market that reacts strongly, not just a weak one.
The Mortgage Rate Effect: From Confidence to Caution
Mortgage rates are probably the main thing causing the slowdown in the Las Vegas housing market and other places. For years during the pandemic, interest rates were very low. But the Federal Reserve has been trying to fight inflation and has pushed borrowing costs up to levels not seen in more than ten years.
For example, think about a mortgage from January 2022 at 3.0% and one in April 2024 at 7.5%. This shows how much monthly payments have gone up. A $400,000 loan at 3% has a monthly payment of less than $1,700. But at 7.5%, that same loan costs almost $2,800 per month. This extra cost has made it too expensive for many buyers to buy a home. Others have had to greatly lower what they expect to be able to buy.
In Las Vegas, many buyers are new to the market, have little cash saved, or have incomes that change. So, the result is buyers getting tired of trying. Many people who wanted to buy are choosing to rent, wait for rates to go down, or hope that home prices will drop to make up for the higher rates.
Real Estate Prices: Stability… For Now
Even though there are signs of weaker demand, real estate prices in Las Vegas have mostly stayed steady. The middle home price has not fallen much, which makes it seem strong. But this price strength is now coming from sellers who don’t want to lower prices, not from buyer demand.
Facts from April 2024 show sellers are still pricing their homes based on what they thought homes were worth during the peak in 2021. These homes are put on the market and stay there without selling, sometimes for weeks or months. This creates a large number of unsold homes that don’t match what buyers today are willing to pay or can pay.
Steve Hawks is a real estate agent in Las Vegas with a lot of experience. He sees this problem every day. “Many sellers are still thinking about the past. They think their home is worth $600,000 because it was in 2021. But in today’s market, it might sell for $540,000 if priced right.”
Many sellers have very low mortgage rates from when they bought. So, they don’t need to sell quickly. Instead, they are listing their homes at prices they hope to get or not selling at all. This limits both the number of homes for sale and price drops.
Housing Inventory: A Silent Shift in Buyer
How many homes are for sale is often a key thing in how strong or weak a housing market is. In April 2024, almost 6,000 single-family homes were listed for sale in Las Vegas. And they did not get a single offer. This large number of unsold homes is starting to show that there are more homes for sale than people want to buy.
This large number of homes without offers is not just because people are not interested. It shows that the homes being offered are not what buyers can afford or want. As this problem continues, sellers will have to lower their prices or take their homes off the market.
If there are many homes for sale for a long time and not enough buyers, then buyers gain . We will likely see more things to attract buyers, such as:
- Sellers paying for buyer closing costs
- Interest-rate buydowns
- Price drops
- Money for repairs or room to negotiate after inspections
All of this points to buyers having more power. This is very different from just a few years ago when it was a hot seller’s market.
Steve Hawks’ Local Insight: A Market Correction In Progress
Real estate expert Steve Hawks says the Las Vegas market is not crashing, but correcting. It’s not a panic or collapse, but a slow change to a time with higher interest rates.
“Buyers and sellers are in two different times right now,” Hawks says. “Sellers are pricing homes like it is 2021, but buyers are thinking about 2024. They will eventually meet in the middle. And that’s the correction you’re seeing.”
His advice? Sellers need to be more active and price their homes realistically if they want to sell in this market. Buyers, on the other hand, should look for homes that have been on the market for a while or sellers who need to sell and are willing to negotiate. “This isn’t 2021. You can negotiate now. Use that to help you.”
Is It a Correction or a Collapse?
Everyone is wondering if this market is really crashing or just changing. Based on loan facts, rules, and how many new homes are being built, a crash like 2008 seems unlikely.
Today’s real estate market has:
- Harder rules to qualify for loans
- Far fewer risky mortgages
- Fewer new homes being built
- Careful appraisals and risk control in loans
What we’re seeing is a normal rebalancing because of very high rate increases and less affordability. It’s more about people being tired and the economy slowing down than a crash about to happen.
However, if bad economic things happen, like job losses or bad government decisions, the correction could get worse. But right now, it’s prices becoming normal because of affordability problems, not a bubble bursting.
Opportunities for Real Estate Investors
For smart investors, the current Las Vegas housing market may have good chances:
- Homes are on the market longer = more room to negotiate
- More homes for sale = better chance of low offers being accepted
- Sellers are worried = buyer incentives and seller financing options
Also, investors who rent out homes could gain from higher rents and fewer people buying homes. With more people who want to buy having to rent, investors who focus on cash flow may find steady demand.
For investors who plan to own property for a long time, slower price increases are not a problem if rental income stays good. They should focus on safe debt and be patient, not on quick flips or risky gains.
Advice for Homebuyers in 2024
First-time buyers in Las Vegas often feel they cannot afford a home. But there are still ways to buy:
- FHA loans: Low down payment options with easier credit rules
- Interest-rate buydowns: Have the seller or builder pay part of your interest at the start
- Location options: Think about looking in a wider area or at homes that need repair
- New home incentives: Builders are offering help with closing costs and upgrades
Getting pre-approved for a loan is still very important. Know what your monthly payment will be. And don’t borrow the maximum amount. Focus on the total cost of owning a home, not just the price.
What Sellers Should Do Now
Selling your Las Vegas home in 2024 is different than it was a few years ago. If your home is listed and no one is interested for weeks, you may need to change your plan.
Helpful seller plans include:
- Pricing competitively from the start
- Offering buyer benefits like rate buydowns or home warranties
- Hiring an agent who is good at staging, photos, and online tours
- Lowering your price a good amount early. Don’t make small price cuts slowly as the market drops.
As Steve Hawks says: “One good price cut can bring in buyers better than five small cuts. Be bold.”
Broader Economic Signals in Las Vegas
Even with housing problems, some parts of the Las Vegas economy are strong:
- Job growth in areas like shipping and healthcare is continuing
- People are still moving here, especially from California
- Tourism and conventions are coming back, which helps local income
These good things may help support long-term demand even if home sales are slow for now. But they are not enough to fix affordability problems and high borrowing costs.
Conclusion: The Market Is Normalizing, Not Collapsing
Even with the scary headlines, the Las Vegas housing market is not going to crash. It is changing to fit new economic times. Home sales waiting to close are down, there are more homes for sale, and affordability is tight, so some prices may drop. But strong basic economic factors suggest it will be strong, especially for homes in good locations or priced well.
Whether you’re buying, selling, or investing, it is important to deal with this complex market with realistic ideas and expert help. When every deal depends on timing and information, having an expert like Steve Hawks to help you is very valuable.