• 🧠 31% of U.S. consumers expect mortgage rates to drop in the next year, up from only 22% the previous month.
• ⚠️ Mortgage rates remain high at around 7.5%, their highest in over 20 years.
• 🔥 A dip in rates could cause waiting demand to come out, pushing home prices sharply higher.
• 💸 Waiting for lower mortgage rates could result in higher total payments because home prices go up.
• 🏘️ Las Vegas continues to have many buyers competing and few homes for sale.

Will Waiting on Mortgage Rates Cost You in the Real Estate Market?

Many buyers are waiting, hoping for mortgage rates to drop. It’s easy to understand why—lower interest rates can make homes much easier to buy. But does waiting cost buyers more than it saves, especially in a busy real estate market like Las Vegas? Here, we look at expert views, facts, and local information to help you decide well.

Mortgage Rate Expectations: Why So Many Homebuyers Are Waiting

People always hope for the best in the housing market, especially when it comes to interest rates. Many buyers are putting off buying, hoping rates will fall. A survey from Fannie Mae showed that 31% of people think mortgage rates will go down in the next 12 months. That's up from only 22% the month before. This growing hope shows how people feel is changing, probably because of news about possible Federal Reserve policy changes and better control of inflation.

But relying only on what surveys say people feel is risky. While hope is high, the real question is whether these expectations match what the market is actually doing. For many buyers, the idea that better times are coming soon leads to a waiting game. But that pause might mean they miss chances without meaning to.

Are Mortgage Rates Actually Headed Down?

To understand this waiting, we need to look at what happened before and what the economy shows. 30-year fixed mortgage rates were close to 7.5%. This is a big jump from the rates below 3% we saw during the pandemic. Rates at this level show worries about inflation, an economy that changes a lot, and the Federal Reserve's tough stand on interest rates.

The Federal Reserve has indeed said it might slow or stop rate increases, especially as inflation looks like it's cooling down. But economic signs are still mixed. The world's economy, with ongoing political tensions, not enough workers, and problems with supply chains, makes US financial markets change a lot. This makes it harder to guess where mortgage rates will go.

And, when we look back over many years, it's clear that even if interest rates go down, they rarely drop fast. In the past, big drops in rates took months, even years. What seems like a good time to buy "just around the corner" often takes much longer. Buyers hoping for a swift drop may not see how slow rate drops usually are.

Why Waiting Could Backfire: Price Pressure Is Building

While mortgage rates have made buyers less eager for now, this won't likely last. From an economic view, when fewer people want to buy for a time, a lot of waiting demand builds up quietly. When rates get easier, even a little, many buyers who were waiting could come back to the market at the same time. This sudden rush can cause a new round of competition.

More competition often means home prices go up. Simply put, waiting might save some money on interest, but that saving could be lost entirely, or even more, if the sale price goes up. In cities with high demand like Las Vegas, this could mean a quick rise in bidding wars, higher prices, and fewer chances to get a better deal.

And, less inventory (fewer homes for sale) means buyers have limited choices. Few homes for sale, plus new demand, could push prices up fast. This would wipe out any good a slightly lower mortgage rate might bring.

Las Vegas Market Reality: Insights from Steve Hawks

According to real estate expert Steve Hawks, who is among the top 1% of agents nationally and has sold over 4,000 homes, the Las Vegas market has stayed strong, surprisingly so. Even with mortgage rates around 7%, many homes for sale get several offers, and good properties still sell for top dollar.

Hawks notes that few homes for sale is a main reason home values stay up. “The market still has limited inventory,” he explains, “and many homes receive multiple offers even at today’s rates.” While fewer people might be buying than in the busy time of 2021, the market is not asleep. Homes priced right in popular areas sell fast.

This shows how important local market activity is. News across the country might cause fear or hope, but what experienced agents see locally often gives a truer picture. In Las Vegas, even small changes in interest rates will likely cause quick jumps in demand, and prices will go up.

Las Vegas Affordability Math: Will a Lower Rate Save You Money?

Let’s consider the numbers that matter. Buying a home isn't only about interest rates. Home prices, loan amounts, insurance, and tax estimates all play a part in the total cost. Many people mistakenly think a small drop in interest rates will make buying a home much easier. But the market rarely acts alone.

Here’s a practical example. Imagine someone looking at a $450,000 home today, with a 7.5% interest rate, and planning to put 20% down. The monthly mortgage payment, not counting taxes and insurance, would be about $2,518.

Now, say the buyer waits six months, hoping rates fall to 6.5%. But in that time, the home's value goes up to $480,000 because more people want to buy and there are few homes for sale. With the same 20% down payment and 6.5% rate, the mortgage is now about $2,430.

That looks like $90 saved each month. But the buyer now has a bigger loan, paid more for the home at first, and lost six months of possible equity growth and market value gains. In this case, waiting means losing money, not gaining it.

Why Some Buyers Are Buying Now

Not all buyers are waiting. Many are using clever financial tools and market changes to help them. With a good plan, buyers can make today’s rates work for them, and maybe get better deals.

Some common ways include:

• Refinance Later: Buy now with a higher rate and get a new loan when rates drop. This avoids the risk of home values going up.
• Seller Deals: Buyers ask sellers to pay closing costs or help lower interest rates. This is common when the market is slow.
• Builder Offers: Builders often create good financing deals. These can include temporary rate reductions, lower closing costs, or home upgrades.

Steve Hawks says, “We’re seeing smart buyers negotiate better deals today than they might six months from now when more people are competing again.” By acting when fewer people are competing, many buyers get more say in the deal and end up with better results.

When Rates Don’t Drop: The “Hope Strategy” Risk

Waiting without a sure thing is a risk, especially when buying a home is such a big deal. If mortgage rates stay high longer than expected, or even go up again, those who waited could face the same (or worse) rates and even higher home prices.

This is what economists call the cost of missed chances from waiting. You might not only miss out on the home you want, but you also give up the chance to build equity and get gains from the home's value going up.

In a slow market, buyers often have more power to negotiate. Sellers are more likely to think about lower prices, compromises, and flexible closing dates. But once rates drop and people start buying again, that power quickly changes hands. You might end up paying more for less.

Investors: Calculating Cost vs. Gain

For real estate investors, it's not just about mortgage rates. It's about how much money they get back and how much it grows over time. Rental income, home value going up, and using borrowed money to invest are more important numbers than the initial rate percentages.

Las Vegas, in particular, still has strong demand for rentals, especially for apartments and short-term rentals. Few homes for sale and high rental income offer good returns even with today's rates.

Steve Hawks shares: “Investors are using their buying power now while there are few homes for sale and rental demand stays strong in Las Vegas.” Especially for those buying apartments or taking advantage of short-term rental chances, acting now can help them get a strong start while the market is easier.

Rate Obsession: The Real Cost of Market Timing

Many people who want to buy a home focus too much on interest rates and not enough on the overall financial situation. While a lower rate helps, it's only one part of a decision with many sides.

More important things to think about include:

• Where the home is and if the area will grow
• When it's right for you and your family (children, job, moving)
• Building equity over time
• Tax benefits and getting rich by owning a home

Trying to buy at the perfect market time is like trying to buy stocks at their cheapest price. It's very hard and often doesn’t help. Success comes more from knowing your goals clearly and having the self-control to act on them, rather than just looking for the very lowest rate.

How to Prepare While You Wait

If you're still unsure about buying now, make sure you wait actively, not just passively. A smart waiting period can be useful and get you ready to act fast when the time comes.

To be as ready as possible:

• Make your credit score better. This can lower your future mortgage rate and give you more loan choices.
• Save for a bigger down payment. This makes your loan-to-value ratio better and improves loan terms.
• Get pre-approved by several lenders to find the best deal.
• Talk to local real estate agents, like Steve Hawks, to get a better sense of how the market works and what homes will be listed soon.

These steps will make sure you're ready no matter what the market does.

What Sellers Need to Understand Right Now

Buyers aren’t the only ones facing uncertainty. Sellers also need to adjust what they expect and understand why buyers are holding back. That does not mean cutting prices sharply, but it does mean knowing what buyers today care about.

Good steps for sellers include:

• Price competitively: Don't ask too much based on old high market prices. Use real comparisons and what buyers want now.
• Offer Deals: Help with closing costs, temporary mortgage rate reductions, or small home upgrades can make homes more attractive.
• Make Homes Move-In Ready: Staging, repairs, and simple cosmetic updates can really get buyers interested.

According to Steve Hawks, “Smart sellers attract the largest pool of qualified buyers.” That often means pricing just under market value to start bidding wars in a market that is otherwise slow.

Scenario Breakdown: Buyer A Waited, Buyer B Bought

To show the real cost of waiting, let’s look at two buyers.

• Buyer A waits six months. Mortgage rates drop by 0.75%, but the home they wanted goes up by $25,000. They pay more in total and begin building equity later.
• Buyer B buys now, gets $15,000 off the asking price, and takes a temporary rate reduction for the first two years. They start building equity right away and plan to refinance when rates drop more.

Over the next five years, Buyer B builds equity, gains from the home's value going up, and lowers monthly costs by refinancing. Buyer A, who first waited for "perfect conditions," ends up with fewer good things.

Steve Hawks’ Advice on Mortgage Rate Changes

Steve Hawks says it simply: “It’s not just about rates. It’s about finding a good deal when fewer people are competing.” Buyers who only focus on rates often miss the bigger picture: buying power, equity growth, and good timing.

Hawks has a lot of experience in the Las Vegas real estate market. He points to decisions based on value, plans made for each person, and the need to act before how people feel about the market changes.

As he often says: “The buyers who win are those who act when others hesitate.”

Is Waiting the Right Move for You?

It's normal to want the best terms for one of the biggest investments you'll ever make. But the real estate market moves fast, and you can't always guess what it will do. Putting off buying just because you hope for lower mortgage rates can go wrong, especially in busy markets with few homes for sale.

If you are ready with your money, buying today gives you stability, power to negotiate, and the chance to refinance later. Smart buyers use every tool they have, from seller deals to builder offers, to make the best of today's market.

Thinking of buying in Las Vegas, or want expert advice on the right plan for you? Call Steve Hawks and make your move feeling sure and clear.

Citations

Fannie Mae. (2023, October). National Housing Survey: October 2023 Monthly Summary.

Federal Reserve Economic Data. (2023). 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average in the United States.

U.S. Census Bureau. (2023). Monthly New Residential Sales, September 2023.