- Branson, MO maintained a STR occupancy rate of 65%+ even during economic fluctuations, showing consistent demand.
- Gulf Shores, AL offers affordable homes (~$350,000 median) with around a 60% occupancy rate year-round, attracting value-seeking investors.
- Airbnb data shows Broken Bow, OK saw a 54% YoY increase in STR bookings in 2022, signaling high growth potential.
- STRs in recession-proof markets thrive on domestic tourism and affordability, shielding them from international travel or luxury-sector declines.
- Diversifying into resilient, dual-use properties (STR & LTR potential) provides flexibility during economic downturns.
Economic shifts happen more often now. They are the new normal. For real estate investors using short-term rentals, knowing where to put your money matters. It can mean you handle a downturn well or struggle. Steve Hawks, a real estate expert in Las Vegas, says moving toward recession-resistant markets is not just smart. It is needed. We will look at how you can spot those markets, what tools to use, and where to put your money for steady STR income.
What is a Recession-Proof STR Market?
A recession-proof STR market still faces economic problems but handles downturns very well. These markets stay steady because they have good things going for them: different reasons people visit, homes are not too expensive, and the rules for short-term rentals work well.
Key Traits of Recession-Resistant STR Markets
- Many kinds of visitors, mostly from the country: Cities that bring in lots of different people—families, older folks, people looking for adventure—often stay popular even when the economy is shaky.
- Homes cost less: Lower home prices mean you borrow less compared to the home’s worth. This helps investors have money coming in even if rentals slow down a bit.
- Rentals and income stay steady: Markets where the income per room (RevPAR) is steady over time show you can count on how they will do.
- Rules are not too strict: Dealing with fewer rules for permits or zones helps keep costs low. It also lowers the chance you might have to change how you use the property.
You can use tools like AirDNA, Zillow, and Mashvisor. With these, investors can check things like how often places are rented, the average daily rate, and home prices in the area. This helps find good markets.
Top 10 Recession-Proof STR Markets You Should Be Watching
We looked at the latest STR data from AirDNA, home prices from Zillow, and rules for short-term rentals. Based on this, these ten markets are in a good spot to handle economic slowdowns and still make good rental money.
McGaheysville, VA
This place in Virginia is a good getaway spot. It’s close to Shenandoah National Park and has things to do year-round at Massanutten Resort. People visit in all seasons—from hiking in spring to skiing in winter. This helps keep STRs steady.
Gatlinburg, TN
This is the way into the Great Smoky Mountains. Gatlinburg has visitors all year. Lots of families come, plus people who like hiking and cabin stays. People from nearby areas really like it, which keeps many people wanting to book. It doesn’t need visitors from other countries.
Gulf Shores, AL
This place is known for its white sand beaches and family trips. It has around a 60% annual occupancy. Homes cost less here, with median home prices near $350,000 (AirDNA & Zillow). When you look at the cost and how much you can make, it’s a good setup for investing in STRs.
Ruidoso, NM
People like Ruidoso for its skiing, hiking, and casino attractions. It brings in visitors from nearby states like Texas and others. The town is nice like a mountain place, and its STRs are doing better now, in all seasons.
Branson, MO
Branson has a lot of shows and theaters. It gets 65%+ occupancy because people visit all year. The rules for STRs are good here, and home values are around $275,000. This makes it cheaper to start. It also helps you make more money from rentals (AirDNA).
Scranton, PA
You might know Scranton from TV. It’s in Northeast Pennsylvania. It’s good because homes are cheap and it’s close to cities like New York and Philadelphia. It is set up to get visitors, people visiting the university, and people staying for a short time, for a long time.
St. Augustine, FL
This is the oldest city in the U.S. Many people visit St. Augustine for its history. Visitors come all year for the buildings, beaches, and ghost tours. Homes are not as expensive here as in South Florida. This makes it a good place for steady STR income.
Brownsville, TX
It’s near the Gulf Coast and the border with Mexico. More people are moving here, and the economy is getting money put into it. As more tourists come, STRs should do better while home prices stay easy to afford.
Broken Bow, OK
Broken Bow is a great example of how STRs are growing fast. Bookings went up 54% from the year before in 2022. More people are liking it for cabins, things to do on the lake, and getting away in nature (AirDNA). Not many STRs are available, but lots of people nearby want to visit. This makes it a good place for STRs that can handle the future.
Ellijay, GA
It’s in the North Georgia mountains. It has pretty views, apple orchards, and festivals all year. Homes are affordable, and it has a simple, rustic feel. This is great for people looking for a quiet mountain getaway. And it’s good for investors who want rentals that stay booked.
What Makes These Markets So Strong?
To see why these markets do better than others, look at their main strengths. These things help them stay steady when money matters are hard to predict.
People from the Country Want to Visit
Now, travelers often like nearby places they can drive to. This helps them avoid flights or worries about other countries. Mountain towns, beach spots, and lake places are good for this.
Lower Prices Mean Safety
Most of the best STR markets have median home prices under $400,000. This lets investors buy places and still make good money. It helps even if rents go down a bit or places are empty more often.
Rules Are Not Too Bad
Cities that welcome visitors but also think about local needs usually have fair rules. They don’t just ban things. This can help keep your investment safe when rules change, like what happened in New York or Los Angeles.
People Visit All Year
Markets like Branson, Gatlinburg, and Ruidoso have things that bring people in during many seasons. This means STR owners don’t just depend on busy times in summer or holidays.
Look for Properties That Can Do Two Things
Steve Hawks often tells investors to think about what he calls “dual threat” properties. These are places that work well as both short-term rentals (STRs) and long-term rentals (LTRs). They give you options for how they make money, depending on what the market needs.
What These Investment Properties Are Like
- 1–3 bedrooms: This size works well for short stays by visitors and for people living there long-term.
- Close to places people work, schools, or hospitals: This helps make sure lots of people want to rent it long-term if fewer tourists come.
- Simple changes: You can easily make small changes to how it looks without big building work. This helps get either type of renter.
If you put your money into properties that can be used two ways, you are not stuck with just one plan. If times get hard, you can rent it out to a long-term renter you can count on. This helps you keep making money and avoids the worry of having no one staying there.
What Can Go Wrong in Markets Not Built for Hard Times
Things are not always great. Fancy, well-known places for STRs, like New York, San Diego, and Miami, are much riskier when the economy slows down.
What Can Cause Problems
- Borrowing a lot of money: This is a problem, especially when homes cost over $1 million and the money you make from STRs might not always pay the monthly bills.
- Cities making STR rules much stricter: Cities might start using lotteries for permits, putting limits on licenses, or just banning STRs completely.
- People might stop spending on fancy trips: If the economy is bad, fewer people might pay for expensive stays. This means fewer bookings and lower daily rates.
These markets can make a lot of money quickly in good years. But they need you to watch them all the time. And they are the hardest places to be when things get tough.
What’s Happening with STRs in Las Vegas: A Local Look
Las Vegas has always been a huge place for visitors. But new rules in Clark County and city areas have made things harder for STRs.
Changes for STR Investors
- Limits on STR permits: Many areas now need you to check zoning first or have stopped giving out new permits.
- Rules about how many people can stay and noise: These rules are meant to stop places being used for parties. But they can make it less appealing for some guests.
- More checking and fines: In 2023 and 2024, the local governments have been busy closing rentals that don’t follow the rules or giving out fines.
Steve Hawks says that smart Las Vegas investors are starting to spread out and look outside Nevada. They are looking for states with rules that don’t change as much.
How to Check Out an STR Market When Times Are Hard
The numbers tell the truth—the best way to decide about an STR is to look at the data.
Online Tools and What They Tell You
- AirDNA: Shows the income per room (RevPAR), how rentals do in different seasons, and how long people usually stay.
- Mashvisor: Helps you figure out how much money you might make and what your return could be. You can look at different ideas for how often places are booked or what you charge.
- Zillow / Realtor.com: Helps you guess how much it would cost to buy a place. You can also see how much home prices have gone up over time.
Things to Look At Closely
What to Check What’s Good to See RevPAR More than your monthly loan payment and costs How Often Places Are Booked 50% or more booked on average each year How Busy It Is Season to Season Not much change throughout the year Daily Rate Stays the Same Price per night is about the same each month Good markets do well in all these areas. They stay strong even if people are making less money, losing jobs, or prices are going up fast.
Tips for Investors: How to Make Your STRs Strong in 2024
Here is a simple plan to help your STRs handle hard times
- Buy homes that cost less than 75% of the average price in the area. This helps you make your money back faster.
- Look for places that need small fixes. You can quickly make the outside look nicer or add things guests really want.
- Pick markets where people visit all year. This could be because of universities, outdoor fun, or events that happen at certain times.
- Find out about local rules for STRs before you buy anything. Stay away from places that need lots of permits or where STRs are not allowed at all.
It is important to remember: it is not just about how much money you make now. It is about what you can do with the property next year, and the year after that.
Who Should Think About Spreading Out From Vegas?
If you have already put money into Las Vegas, maybe it’s time to buy places in other areas.
You Should Spread Out If
- You already own many STR places in Nevada and want to have properties in different areas.
- Your goal is to build wealth over many years, not just make a lot of money fast when the market is good.
- You have hit limits on permits or are tired of dealing with changing rules, and this is hurting your income.
Do not sell everything in Las Vegas. But be ready for the future by adding STR properties that are safe and strong in other places.
Look at Branson, MO, Ruidoso, NM, and Gulf Shores, AL
These three places show how it works. They all have affordable homes, people visit often, and the rules for STRs are good.
| Metric | Branson, MO | Ruidoso, NM | Gulf Shores, AL |
|---|---|---|---|
| RevPAR | $150+ (2023 avg) | $130+ (stable) | $140 (strong peak) |
| Occupancy Rate | 65%+ year-round | 55–60% | 60% steady |
| STR Regulation | Good | Good | Good |
| Median Home Price | ~$275,000 | ~$310,000 | ~$350,000 |
| Local Demand | High (shows/fun) | More people visiting from nearby | Stays the same (family trips) |
| They all do well. You don’t need to put in money like you would in a very expensive market. And you don’t have to deal with places where people are against STRs. |
What’s New in STR Investments: Small Apartments & Midterm Rentals
If STR markets seem too full or change a lot, look into other kinds of rentals that have become popular since 2020.
Why Midterm Rentals (MTRs) Are Good
- They work for people like traveling nurses, interns, and people who can work from anywhere.
- You get more steady money because people stay for 30 to 90 days.
- It’s often easier to deal with STR rules because people stay longer.
Websites like Furnished Finder or Airbnb’s monthly options can help you find guests you can count on. Make sure your places have furniture, good internet, desks, and flexible move-in dates. This helps keep these places rented out.
Want to make your investment plan ready for the future? If you invest in Las Vegas and are looking for STR options that are smarter and steadier, maybe it is time to spread out. Book a 1-on-1 Strategy Call with Steve Hawks and get better insights on further diversifying your portfolio with real estate.