• 🏡 Mortgage rates held steady at 6.38% despite economic turmoil and a government shutdown.
• ⚖️ The Federal Reserve is hesitating to cut rates due to lingering inflation above 2% targets.
• 📊 A 17% rise in national housing inventory highlights a shift toward a healthier housing market.
• 🔄 Refinancing has surged 18% year-over-year, reflecting buyer interest in locking current rates.
• 📉 Narrow mortgage spreads mean lower monthly payments for borrowers compared to early 2025.

Mortgage Rates: Why Aren’t They Moving?

Mortgage rates have stayed surprisingly stable in recent weeks. This is true even with many economic problems, like ongoing inflation and a government shutdown. This unexpected calm gives buyers, especially in busy markets like Las Vegas, a good chance to buy. This article looks at current mortgage trends, housing market facts, and ideas from experts like Steve Hawks. It shows why rates have not dropped as expected and how you can make good moves during this quiet time.

Mortgage Rates Hold Steady Near 6.38%

As of the latest reports, 30-year conforming mortgage rates are holding steady at 6.38%. FHA-backed loans are at 6.20%, and jumbo loans are a little lower at 6.26% (HousingWire, 2025). For many, this lack of change is a good break after the big ups and downs in mortgage rates seen earlier in 2025, when rates got close to 7% or more.

These numbers are in a middle range. They are not as low as the sub-3% days during 2020-2021. But they are much cheaper than the highest rates after the pandemic. Stable rates give people who want to buy homes and owners looking to refinance a short-term feeling of knowing what to expect in a housing market that changes a lot.

More importantly, this flattening shows that the housing market may be getting stronger. This is true even as general economic conditions are still unclear. It suggests lenders and investors are hopeful, but careful, for now.

The Government Shutdown and Its Grip on Housing

The current government shutdown has made economic predictions much harder. When Washington stops working, so do many of its data-producing agencies. For example, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics has held back important numbers like jobs reports and consumer price indexes. These numbers help the Federal Reserve figure out what to do with money policy, including interest rates.

Melissa Cohn, a regional VP at William Raveis Mortgage, called the situation a “data void.” This missing information makes it harder for financial markets to figure out how healthy the economy is. In turn, it limits the Fed's ability to change interest rates early. Without up-to-date data, any money policy moves carry more risk.

For the mortgage market, this lack of information creates an odd problem. Uncertainty usually pushes rates down. But in this case, it just adds to the lack of movement because the Fed cannot make changes with certainty.

Why Aren’t Rates Dropping Despite Shutdown?

Historically, government shutdowns come with economic worry. Investors turn to safer investments like bonds, which makes yields go down. This usually pulls mortgage rates lower at the same time. So why not this time?

One main reason is inflation. Fed Governor Michael Barr said that inflation “is still above our 2% target and is now rising.” When inflation is hard to bring down, the Fed is facing a tricky situation.

Cutting interest rates too early could make inflation worse again. This could happen by making people borrow and spend more. That’s a situation policymakers really want to avoid. As a result, the Federal Reserve is choosing patience over panic. They are choosing to wait and see carefully instead of making rushed decisions because of the shutdown.

Also, job market signs, while getting weaker, have not fallen apart. This gives the Fed little room to cut rates without seeming too eager. It also keeps people from doubting its ability to fight inflation.

The Federal Reserve’s Wait-and-See Policy

According to CME Group, a very high 97% of market watchers expect a 25-basis-point rate cut by October. And people are more sure that there will be another cut by the end of the year. These expectations are based on signs that inflation is slowing. And they are based on small drops in wage growth and hiring rates.

But these are just predictions when the Fed warns there is no “risk-free” way forward. Jerome Powell and his team are balancing two goals that go against each other. They want to keep prices steady by controlling inflation. And they want to help jobs and the economy grow without causing another recession.

Upcoming decisions depend on missing employment and inflation data. So, there is more risk that any change now could be at the wrong time. The Fed is not making quick reactions to numbers. Instead, it is making decisions based on whatever data they can gather later, even if it is not complete.

This careful attitude means people should not expect big mortgage rate cuts in the near future. But it does show the Fed is nearing a time when things might change. Borrowers should watch this with great interest.

Fall Housing Market Looks Healthier

The housing market has quietly been getting stronger, even with inflation and shutdown news. National housing inventory is up 17% compared to last year. This is one of the best increases since before the COVID-19 pandemic (HW Data, 2025). Buyers now have more choices, even in markets that are usually hard to get into.

This, along with slower growth in how much home prices go up, creates a good situation for a more balanced market. In this market, buyers have more power to negotiate.

This does not mean prices are falling a lot. They are simply holding steady. For years, very high demand, caused by record-low rates and low supply, made the market crazy. But today’s market feels normal again. It lets people who want to buy actually compare homes, which was almost impossible over the last few years.

In busy areas like Las Vegas, this has gotten rid of some of the crazy competition. It even means small price drops in neighborhoods where prices rose too much.

Mortgage Spreads Offer Pricing Opportunities

Mortgage rates do not move only because of economic indicators. They also show the difference between benchmark securities, like the 10-year Treasury yield, and the actual mortgage rate buyers pay. When that difference gets smaller, it shows lenders are more sure about the market.

An analyst explained, these differences have started to get smaller in late 2025. That is good news for borrowers because it means lower monthly payments. This is true even if the main interest rate has not changed much.

A smaller difference means mortgage lenders are not adding as much extra cost for risk. This shows the economy is fairly calm and there is enough cash. Borrowers should see this as a sign to act now. They can lock in good payments before more uncertainty makes those differences wider again.

Refinancers, in particular, may benefit. This is true especially if they have older high-interest loans or variable-rate mortgages that have already gone up.

Buying in Las Vegas? Here’s What to Know

Las Vegas stays one of the nation's most active housing markets. This is because many people move there, it's cheaper than California, and its job market is strong thanks to tourism. Local real estate expert Steve Hawks says a good chance to buy may be happening now.

“There’s more room to negotiate in Q4,” says Hawks. Inventory has gone up across metro Las Vegas, opening more listings in areas that used to have few homes for sale. Also, developers are selling homes built without a buyer before year-end. This gives an advantage to buyers with cash or strong financing.

Nearby areas like North Las Vegas, Henderson, and parts of Summerlin offer good chances for long-term investment. Hawks notes these areas can still offer fair value. This is true especially for buyers who cannot afford homes in inner city areas.

Many people who wanted to buy were put off by rising mortgage rates in early 2025. They are now coming back to the market before rates go up again.

Buyer Interest Is Rebounding

It is easy to think that high interest rates would stop people from wanting to buy homes. But recent actions show something different. According to Samir Dedhia, CEO of One Real Mortgage, “Buyers who had paused their home search due to worries about being able to afford it are showing new interest.”

This is seen in more people going to open houses, more mortgage applications, and even early signs of people offering to buy in popular neighborhoods. These include Las Vegas' Summerlin South (89138) and North Las Vegas (89031).

Lenders are seeing these shifts too. More pre-approvals are being given now than during the summer. Rates are steady now after months of big changes. This is making buyers feel more sure and starting new interest, despite the rate levels.

Refinancing Growing at 18% Year-Over-Year

Refinance activity is growing fast, up 18% compared to this time last year. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported this. Surprisingly, refinances are now more common than loans for buying homes in some areas. This is a change from what was seen earlier this year.

Homeowners with adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) are driving much of this. They are wanting to get a fixed rate before rates go up more in the future. Other people are leaving payment pause programs from the pandemic. Or they are looking to pay off other debts with money from their home, using interest rates they can still handle.

This jump fits with smaller mortgage differences and a fairly good home equity situation. Now is a good time to carefully check things out. Even knocking a single percentage point off your mortgage rate could save tens of thousands over the life of the loan.

Is This Rate Window About to Close?

This period of mortgage rate stability may feel like a chance to relax, but it might not last. Political and economic factors keep changing a lot. A long government shutdown, a sudden jump in inflation, or bad job market numbers could change the Fed’s stance in ways no one expects.

According to Fed officials like Michael Barr, rate policy is being made with very little clear information. There is not much clear information and many risks. Should inflation show signs of speeding up again, the Fed may have to raise rates yet again in 2026.

Hawks warns his clients about waiting too long: “If you’re waiting for a perfect time, you’ll miss it. The ‘cost of waiting’ is real — both in terms of pricing and chances.”

Steve Hawks' Tips for Las Vegas Investors

Hawks offers proven suggestions for those looking to invest in Las Vegas housing now:

• Negotiate hard: Things have changed a little in buyers’ favor. Do not accept the asking price as final. Counteroffers are welcome again.
• Get fixed-rate loans: ARMs may look good now. But getting a sure thing is safer. The next 12-18 months could bring unsteady rates.
• Target areas with many renters: Zip codes with universities, service-industry jobs, or military bases (e.g., UNLV, Nellis AFB) usually have steady rental demand.
• Avoid small areas with too-high prices: Some areas recovered too fast. They could get weaker again if economic problems continue.

Investing smart today could make more money than following trends. This is true especially as renters stay in the market longer due to worries about costs.

What to Track Going Forward

The mortgage and housing story is far from over. For buyers, sellers, or investors, watching these coming signs will be very important:

• Federal Reserve’s rate decisions in October and December
• Length and economic effect of the ongoing government shutdown
• Any return of inflation in delayed economic data
• Changes in how homebuilders feel, showing how strong future housing supply will be
• Mortgage demand changes, especially first-time buyers starting or stopping buying

These signs will be key in understanding where the housing market moves next, whether into getting stronger or weaker.

A Rare Opportunity in a Challenging Year

Today’s housing market offers a rare, maybe short, chance to make a good move, whether buying or refinancing. Mortgage rates have steadied. Inventory is rising. And the chaos from earlier in 2025 has, for now, settled.

For people who think ahead, waiting may no longer be a smart plan. As expert Steve Hawks warns, “The cost of waiting could be higher than people realize.”

If you are in the Las Vegas area or thinking about buying property there, make the most of this rare moment of stability. Talk to trusted experts to figure out your best move before this chance will surely change.

Citations

• CBS News. (2025, October). Government shutdown continues to cause gridlock in Congress.
• CME Group. (2025). FedWatch Tool: Market expectations for federal rate changes. 
• Mortgage Bankers Association. (2025). Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey.
• Federal Reserve. (2025, October 9). Speech by Governor Michael Barr: Monetary policy challenges.
• Freddie Mac. (2025). Weekly mortgage interest rate averages.